A ceasefire ending the Israel-Hezbollah armed conflict that had been started by Hezbollah on 8 October 2023 came into force on 04:00, 27 November 2024.
According to its terms, Hezbollah will withdraw its armed forces and infrastructure from the territory of south Lebanon, which this Iranian asset organization used to hold under its effective control prior to the Israeli ground offensive launched on 30 September 2024. At the same time, Israel will also withdraw from the Lebanese territory.
The area is supposed to be returned to the actual control of the Lebanese state. Hezbollah military infrastructure in the area close to the Israeli border is not to be rebuilt, and what remains of it following the Israeli offensive is to be dismantled.
Crucially, Israel has reserved the right to launch military strikes in case of violations of the deal by Hezbollah, with Prime Minister Netanyahu saying that Israel would “maintain full freedom of military action” in Lebanon “with the United States’ full understanding.”
The understanding in question was confirmed by President Biden, who stated that “Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon will not be allowed to be rebuilt,” and that “if Hezbollah or anyone else breaks the deal and poses a direct threat to Israel, then Israel retains the right to self-defence consistent with international law.”
To further clarify the question of enforcement, Netanyahu said: “If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack. If it tries to rebuild terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it launches a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in a truck carrying rockets, we will attack.”
The terms of the agreement and its enforcement mechanism amount to the loss by Hezbollah, and through it by Iran, of their effective military control of Lebanon’s territory along the country’s border with Israel, which was the Israeli objective in the war with Hezbollah.
The ceasefire of 27 November 2024 thus concludes with Israel’s victory its armed conflict with Iran’s asset Hezbollah that constituted a Focal Contest (see the Watch Framework).
Efforts Category: Iran vs Israel Military Force (Northern Front)
On 27 November 2024, the coalition of Syrian rebels in Idlib region launched an offensive against the Assad regime forces.
The offensive opened with significant success as the rebels advanced on the frontline west of Aleppo, taking a number of towns and villages, including Anjara, Qabtan al-Jabal, Bala, Al-Hutah, and Hawar among others.
The rebels moved forward rapidly despite the Russian and Assad regime air forces’ strikes against their advancing forces.
This is the first significant territorial change on the frontline between the Assad regime and rebel forces in over four years. The last one, in 2019-2020, involved Assad’s offensive in Idlib region conducted with the Russian and Iranian support, which the rebels stopped with the help of Turkey after suffering some territorial losses .
Efforts Category: Syrian Rebels vs Assad Regime Military Force
Modern Great Game Watch 