MENA Theater Update, 19 Mar. 2025

A chain of military operations has developed in the Middle East, all connected to the planned elimination of Hamas.

In Gaza, Israel has continued its series of multiple strikes against Hamas targets, as it prepares to make the final push for ending Hamas’s territorial control in Gaza. Even if the war were to be paused again, the Israeli US-supported objective to end Hamas’s rule in the Gaza Strip would remain and likely acted upon a little later.

At the same time, Israel has been systematically hitting the Iranian asset Hezbollah’s targets in Lebanon. After its November 2024 defeat in the war against Israel, Hezbollah is in no position to respond, and is just taking Israeli punishment. Israel’s purpose is to prevent Iran’s restoration of the capabilities of Hezbollah for a future war against Israel. It is an important task for Israel not only in the general strategic sense, but also specifically for the moment when elimination of Hamas reaches its final stages. Israel needs Hezbollah to remain unable of posing a major threat when that time comes.

For similar motives, Israel is also enforcing its declaration of a demilitarized zone in the three provinces of south Syria. Israel has been conducting airstrikes dismantling military infrastructure in that area. While Syria’s new administration has no appetite for a fight against Israel, it is under strong influence of Turkey. Ankara has military presence in Syria, which is reportedly set to soon be formalized by a Turkish-Syrian agreement. Turkey’s diplomacy has been pushing back aggressively against Israel’s military operations against Hamas. Previously, diplomacy was all Turkey could do in this regard due to its geographic separation from Israel’s borders. In this sense, the fall of the Assad regime has changed the geopolitical equation fundamentally. It is likely that Israel is disinclined to take chances with what Ankara might have in mind about the Turkish presence in Syria with regard to Israel. Hence come the Israeli establishment of an occupied buffer zone along the Syrian border with Israel, and the proclamation of a demilitarized zone in Syria’s three southern provinces.

Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen responded to the restart of Israeli operation against Hamas with renewing their own hostilities against Israel by targeting it with a ballistic missile on 18 March. The missile was intercepted by the Israelis.

A much more potent Houthi method of acting in support of Hamas’s survival has been their attacks against the shipping in the narrow waterways of the Red Sea, which has had a major impact on the global maritime trade. Seeking to end this menace, the United States launched a major air operation against the Houthis on 15 March 2025. As of 19 March, American airstrikes against the Houthis were still taking place and appeared set to continue in the nearest future unless the Houthis pledged to refrain from further attacks against the Red Sea shipping.

Efforts Categories: Hamas vs Israel Military Force; Israel’s Military Force vs Iran in Lebanon; Israel’s Military Force vs Syria (Quneitra, Deraa and Suweida provinces); Houthis vs Israel Military Force; US, Britain and others vs Houthis Military Force

MENA Theater Updates