The Watch Framework
Modern Great Game Watch explores and follows the currently ongoing global geopolitical struggle in a comprehensible and structured way, refuting the general impression of random chaos that many people might be getting otherwise.
The way to do this is to identify the elements that really matter in the vast clouds of informational junk, and then study their function, behavior and development. Such key elements of interstate struggle really have been the same since the dawn of human civilization and the creation of the first states.
Below I explain the conceptual basis used by Modern Great Game Watch, and its application on this website.
The Concept
There are states and other organized entities controlling or seeking to control territory. Each of them pursues a Desired Outcome – the geopolitical state of affairs that the entity wants to exist.
On occasion, Desired Outcomes of two of such entities turn out to be utterly incompatible with one another. They just can’t both come true because they are mutually exclusive. If the entities involved possess the material capacity and the will to pursue their Desired Outcomes regardless, and start conducting actions for this purpose, a Struggle between them ensues.
Entities that engage in Struggles are Geopolitical Players.
We identify various kinds of them:
Geostrategically Active Powers systematically try to exercise their power and influence beyond their own territory.
Geostrategically Inactive Powers do not do that in a systematic way, although some of them might do it on particular separate occasions. Geostrategically Inactive Powers can be, and many are, Geopolitical Players. One of the frequent reasons is that their territory gets included into the Desired Outcome of a Geostrategically Active Power, and that Desired Outcome is incompatible with the Desired Outcome of the Geostrategically Inactive Power in question, resulting in a Struggle.
We further identify different kinds of Geostrategically Active Powers.
Superpowers have the capacity to attempt organizing around themselves the whole global international system.
Great Powers have the capacity to attempt organizing around themselves a region or a set of regions short of the whole globe. Some of them, however, might be benefitting from the existing state of affairs to such an extent that instead of trying to carve out regional spheres of influence they use their strength to support the global system organized around a friendly Superpower.
Then there are Secondary Geostrategically Active Powers that are not heavyweight enough to attempt organizing around themselves the globe or a region, but still have the capacity to systematically exercise their power and influence beyond their own territory.
Modern Great Game Watch follows only those Struggles that involve Superpowers or Great Powers, although many other Geopolitical Players also participate in them. For instance, we do not follow here the Struggle of Rwanda and Uganda with the Democratic Republic of the Congo because it is not directly connected to the current great power Struggles, but we will start following it if at some point Superpowers or Great Powers get involved in it in a manner that connects it to their own Struggles.
States and other organized entities controlling or seeking to control territory that systematically help and facilitate pursuit of the Desired Outcome by a Geopolitical Player, without doing the same for any of its adversary Geopolitical Players, are its Geopolitical Facilitators. Some entities are both Geopolitical Players themselves and another Player’s Geopolitical Facilitators at the same time.
Geopolitical Grey Zones are entities whose territory is systematically used by one or more Geopolitical Player(s) for their purposes in pursuit of their Desired Outcomes irrespective of the will of the hosts’ authorities.
Geopolitical Players pursue their Desired Outcomes through Efforts – actions Players employ to bring about their own Desired Outcomes and prevent adversarial Players from bringing about theirs.
The Efforts are conducted by various kinds of Means – Military, Covert, Political (concerning the government or other public affairs of the targeted entity, and, unlike the Covert, applied openly), Diplomatic, Economic and Aid (developmental or other help that does not belong to other kinds of Means above).
The Means are applied by a number of Methods. Force is direct action designed to achieve results in the face of the targeted entity’s opposition and irrespective of its will. Pressure seeks to push targeted entities into doing or refraining from doing something. Inducement is used for the same purpose, but, contrary to Pressure, with carrot rather than stick. Subversion is used to weaken the targeted entity. Support is used to strengthen it. Cooperation is employed by two or more entities together to enhance their Efforts. In Parley, adversarial Geopolitical Players communicate with one another seeking to achieve their respective objectives in the face of each other’s opposition.
Efforts differ in the Character of what they attempt to achieve.
Focal Efforts are direct attempts to achieve or prevent change in: 1) effective territorial control, or 2) the targeted entity’s geopolitical alignment. The latter refers to whether the targeted Geopolitical Player is or is not engaged in a Struggle against another Geopolitical Player, or to the targeted entity’s status as a Geopolitical Facilitator or Geopolitical Grey Zone of a given Geopolitical Player.
Auxiliary Efforts are employed in preparation or support (or hindering thereof) of Focal Efforts.
Geopolitical Players also incessantly employ numerous Efforts below the Auxiliary threshold in service of their Desired Outcomes. Modern Great Game Watch, however, uses a demanding filter in its monitoring of Efforts, limiting its exploration to only the Focal and Auxiliary ones.
Efforts have specific Purposes. In the case of Focal Efforts, these refer to attempted forced or voluntary changes in either effective territorial control or certain Player’s, Facilitator’s or Grey Zone’s geopolitical alignment, or to the prevention of these. In the case of Auxiliary Efforts, Purposes refer to various ways in which such given Efforts serve preparation and support of ongoing or potential Focal Efforts.
We also identify three Types of Efforts.
A Move is a single separate Effort.
Activities are series of Efforts conducted for a period of time with the same kind(s) of Means, by the same Method, for the same Purpose(s), and directed at the same Player(s).
A Contest consists of simultaneous Activities conducted by adversarial Geopolitical Players against one another within a particular area.
Focal Efforts result in a Decisive Geopolitical Event – a set of Efforts dedicated to a particular change in effective territorial control and/or Geopolitical Player’s, Facilitator’s or Grey Zone’s geopolitical alignment, or to prevention of such a change.
Decisive Geopolitical Episode is a Decisive Geopolitical Event or a set of connected Decisive Geopolitical Events waged between groups of Geopolitical Players, along with the Auxiliary Efforts conducted in preparation or support (or hindering thereof) of the Focal Efforts involved in this/these Decisive Geopolitical Event(s).
The Watch
Modern Great Game Watch employs this analytical concept to comprehend and follow the current global geopolitical struggle in a structured manner.
To do so we use the regularly updated Modern Great Game Map that shows key elements of the ongoing global struggle.
It includes Geopolitical Players, with different markers for Superpowers, Great Powers, Secondary Geostrategically Active Powers, and Geostrategically Inactive Powers of two different categories.
The map also shows Geopolitical Facilitators and Grey Zones.
A key element on the map that we follow and update through our multi-source monitoring is the Efforts. The map shows Contests, Activities and Moves with different markers reflecting whether they are Focal or Auxiliary, and which Method they are conducted by.
The texts on the markers state which entities are involved in the given Effort, which Means and Method have been employed, what are the Effort’s Purpose, Character and Type, and the dates or periods when the given Effort was known or reported to be actively conducted.
Whenever our regular monitoring discovers emergence of new Efforts, or changes in the ongoing Efforts, the map is updated accordingly.
The map also shows Decisive Geopolitical Episodes.
The Updates follow specific significant changes and developments in the ongoing Efforts caught by our multi-source monitoring.
The Efforts Category of each update corresponds to the relevant marker on the map.
The Efforts covered in the Updates belong to various geographic theaters, each with a webpage. If an Effort concerns more than one theater, it goes to the Multi-Theater Updates webpage. When on a theater webpage, you an either proceed to see all updates of the given theater, or choose one of the Efforts Categories and see only its updates.
The website’s coverage with Updates starts from 1 July 2024. Modern Great Game Map, however, shows Efforts starting from 1 January 2022.
David Batashvili
Modern Great Game Watch 